In the new decade, the upgrading is in full swing. In the past decade, the value-added growth of knowledge intensive medicine and electronics industry has led the way, while the capital intensive steel and labor-intensive textile industry have been followed. The growth rate of added value of strategic emerging industries, high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry is also higher than that of the whole industry. From the micro perspective, in the past three years, the output growth of traditional industrial products such as steel, nonferrous metals, cement and coal has been generally sluggish, while the output growth of new products such as new energy vehicles and industrial robots has continued to be high, far exceeding the former. The raw materials are on the high side, and the electronic curve overtakes. Compared with the United States, Japan, Germany and other manufacturing powers, we still have a certain gap. In terms of the proportion of manufacturing industry in the economy, China is equivalent to the United States in the early 1950s and Japan in the mid 1980s. From the perspective of the internal structure of manufacturing industry, the American electronic industry has established a leading position by relying on capital market financing, while the Japanese raw materials and equipment processing industries have become the mainstay of the economy by relying on bank financing. In China, the proportion of metal and building materials is on the high side, while the proportion of machinery is on the low side, which reflects that the upgrading from raw material industry to processing and assembly industry is not smooth, but the electronic industry has realized the curve overtaking. The structure of leading enterprises needs to be upgraded. In terms of quantity, China's top 500 enterprises in the world in 19 years have surpassed the United States, but the proportion of energy and metal enterprises is too high, and the profit margin is not prominent. The automobile and industrial machinery industries are slightly weak, while the computer and electronic equipment manufacturing enterprises are large but not strong. In terms of time, China's manufacturing enterprises are late on the list, behind the rise of the United States, Japan and Germany, and only the automobile manufacturing industry started relatively early.

Meso clue: path and short board

Equipment manufacturing: the sales volume is growing rapidly, and the technology is still short. The sales volume of China's construction machinery has ranked the first in the world, but the price is only in the middle level, reflecting that there is still a gap between the bargaining power of China and the United States. As a typical equipment manufacturing industry, the industrial robot manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, but the number of ownership is only the third, and the density is lower than that of the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea. There is a big gap between the key technology areas and Japan. In the fields of harmonic reducer, RV Reducer, electric welding tongs, nearly or even more than 70% of patents belong to Japan. Another typical example is the aerospace industry. Although it is expanding at a high speed, the United States still dominates, and there is still a large gap between the existing military field and R & D investment. Electronics: the industry has begun to take shape with insufficient core technology. In the past decade, China's electronic industry has witnessed rapid growth, leading the way in growth and rising in proportion. The proportion of the electronic industry of the United States and Japan in the economy tends to be stable. As the core of semiconductor products, the self-sufficiency rate of integrated circuit products in China is insufficient, and the dependence on imports is high. The export amount of products in 18 years is less than 30% of the import amount. The industrial structure also needs to be expanded upstream. The core equipment such as photolithography machine is controlled by people, and the problem of "neck sticking" needs to be eliminated. Medicine: transforming to "innovative medicine", there is still a large space for research and development. Although the growth rate of output value of China's pharmaceutical industry has declined in recent years, it is still far higher than the global market average, and it is gradually upgrading from the "generic" stage to the "innovative" stage. In the past 18 years, the number of pharmaceutical R & D enterprises in China is the second in the world, but only one eighth of that in the United States. Although the number of new drugs approved has made great progress, the dependence on imports is still high. 41 of the 51 new drugs approved by the drug administration in 2018 are imported drugs. Insufficient R & D investment has obviously hindered the upgrading of pharmaceutical industry. In the past 18 years, the total R & D investment of the top 100 pharmaceutical enterprises in China is about 46 billion yuan, which is less than that of a leading pharmaceutical enterprise in the United States.

Future outlook: direction and grasp

In the past decade, China's manufacturing industry has been upgraded in full swing, but due to its late start, it still lags behind the old manufacturing powers such as the United States, Japan and Germany. We believe that high-end equipment manufacturing, electronics and medicine will still be the key areas of China's manufacturing industry upgrading in the next decade, and equity financing and R & D investment are indispensable. Among them, equity financing is the key to stimulate human capital, and the R & D investment intensity still has a large space to improve. Fortunately, we are not following the old road of stimulating real estate and infrastructure construction, but maintaining our determination and firm confidence and focusing on the development of three major industries: high-end equipment manufacturing, electronics and medicine. I believe that with the continuous improvement of R & D investment intensity and the development of equity financing, the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry will still be in the ascendant!

1. Macro comparison: current situation and gap

1.1 the new decade is full of innovation and upgrading

In the past decade, China's manufacturing upgrading has been in full swing. At the meso level, in terms of the average growth rate of value-added of major industrial industries in the past decade, knowledge intensive medicine (13.1%) and electronics (12.1%) have the leading position and significant advantages, compared with capital intensive steel (6.8%) and labor-intensive textile (7.3%), which have been eclipsed. In the past five years, the growth rate of added value of strategic emerging industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry has been higher than the overall growth rate of industry, and the proportion in the overall industry has also increased accordingly.

At the micro level, in the past three years, the average growth rate of output of traditional industrial products represented by steel, non-ferrous metals, cement, electricity and coal is generally lower than 5%. The output of new products represented by new energy vehicles, industrial robots, photovoltaic cells and integrated circuits showed explosive growth, with an average growth rate of about 20%, far exceeding the former.

1.2 the raw materials are on the high side, and the electronic curve overtakes

However, compared with the United States, Japan, Germany and other manufacturing powers, we still have some disadvantages